Spain is one of the four countries that could lose the most visitors due to an increase in heat waves. This is reflected in the Joint Research Centre’s analysis for the European Commission, which speaks of up to 3% fewer overnight stays if the temperature rises by 4 degrees. This means that the country would be the fourth most threatened by the consequences of this rise in temperature, with figures similar to those of Portugal, but far from the drops of around 7% and 8% predicted for Greece and Cyprus, respectively.

Within Spain, the Balearic Islands is precisely the autonomous community that could lose the most tourism as a result of this global change in temperatures. The archipelago could lose up to 8.16% of overnight stays if temperatures rise by four degrees. It would be followed by Murcia with -6.8% and the Valencian Community with -3.2%. On the other hand, regions such as Galicia, Asturias, Cantabria and the Basque Country would see their tourism figures increase. Similarly, countries such as Ireland, Lithuania, the United Kingdom and Denmark would see an increase of up to 9%.

The tourism sector, according to statements on RTVE, is somewhat sceptical about the study. They cite the example of countries such as Egypt, whose high temperatures coexist with good tourism data. Moreover, in a scenario of warmer temperatures, they also mention the possibility of an increase in overnight stays in winter.