A cut-off low is expected to bring heavy rain and thunderstorms to Mallorca on Sunday 18 October, particularly from midday onwards. According to the AEMET forecast, rainfall could reach 30 litres per square metre in one hour. The Directorate-General for Emergencies and the Interior is urging caution as weather conditions worsen across the Balearic Islands.
The possible formation of a cut-off low, an isolated area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere, combined with an influx of moist Mediterranean air, will create unstable weather conditions. Civil Protection at Spain’s Ministry of the Interior has also warned of the possibility of heavy rainfall, although there is still uncertainty about how the weather system will develop.
The Technical Advisory Committee of Plan Meteobal (the Balearic Islands’ adverse weather emergency plan) met on Friday 16 October to assess the situation and prepare preventive measures.
When will the rain arrive in Mallorca?
The AEMET forecast suggests a relatively calm Saturday 17 October, with the possibility of isolated light showers.
Conditions will change on Sunday 18 October, when a rainy day is expected across Mallorca. The heaviest rainfall is forecast from midday onwards, with totals potentially reaching 30 litres per square metre in one hour.
Easterly winds of between 30 and 40 kilometres per hour are also expected, although particularly strong winds are not forecast.
The unsettled weather could continue into Monday and even part of Tuesday, although its development remains uncertain. For now, Emergencies has not specified rainfall totals or timings for Mallorca on those days.
Eivissa and Formentera face the greatest risk
The heaviest rainfall across the Balearic Islands is expected in Eivissa and Formentera, where AEMET has forecast orange weather warnings for rain and thunderstorms.
In the Pityusic Islands, rain could begin overnight from Saturday into Sunday or during the early hours of Sunday. From Sunday morning, rainfall rates of between 30 and 40 litres per square metre in one hour are expected, with isolated peaks of 50 litres.
According to the forecast provided to Emergencies, rainfall could reach 130 litres per square metre over five or six hours. The intensity is expected to decrease towards the end of Sunday.
In Menorca, no significant impact is currently expected, although rain could arrive late on Sunday or during Monday.
Emergencies prepares Plan Meteobal alerts
The Directorate-General for Emergencies and the Interior is continuously monitoring the weather system and has alerted emergency services to prepare for possible incidents.
The Plan Meteobal Technical Advisory Committee will meet again on Saturday 17 October at 12:00 to update the forecast and assess the measures required. Emergencies has also announced that it will activate the appropriate Civil Protection alerts depending on how weather conditions develop.
It is important to distinguish between AEMET’s weather warnings and the Civil Protection alerts issued under Plan Meteobal, which are established through different procedures.
Safety advice during heavy rainfall
Emergencies is urging people to take extra precautions during the severe weather and has reiterated the main safety recommendations.
At home:
- Close doors and windows and remove outdoor objects that could be swept away by water or wind.
- Take measures to prevent water from entering your home.
- Switch off the electricity and turn off the main water supply if there is a risk of flooding.
- Avoid basements, garages and other low-lying areas that could flood.
Outdoors or when travelling:
- Avoid unnecessary journeys.
- Do not cross flooded areas, either on foot or by vehicle.
- Stay away from torrents and places where water may accumulate. You can consult the map of flood-prone areas in Mallorca at this link.
- Do not park in flood-prone areas, on bridges, at fords or near river mouths.
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