Quaderns Gadeso’s latest analysis of the 2023 high season calls for caution in the sector’s forecasts due to high inflation, the energy sector crisis, the war in Ukraine, Brexit and the threat of recession in Germany and the UK

The threat of an economic slowdown in outbound markets such as Germany and the UK is dampening the mood ahead of the 2023 high season in Mallorca. Although the forecasts are initially good, the Quaderns Gadeso report calls for caution as the international situation marked by the war in Ukraine, inflation, the energy crisis, Brexit and the threat of economic slowdown in markets such as Germany and the UK could alter these good forecasts.

According to the latest report, the economic recession would lead to a contraction in consumption and spending, which directly affects people’s ability to travel and consume during their holidays in their destinations.
Gadeso is based on 600 interviews carried out between the 10th and 25th May, so its results correspond to the opinion of the Balearic tourism business community just before the municipal and regional elections were held on 28th May.

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Rising prices and increased business profitability

In this context of uncertainty, an increase in activity (19%) and a rise in prices (17.5%) are forecast, which would increase business profitability (+6%). Although, it is noted, it is possible that these figures may be altered depending on the Balearic business response to the formation of the new government to be headed by the president of the PP in the islands, Marga Prohens. What three out of ten businessmen do express is their uncertainty about the season.

According to bookings from the UK and Germany and the “promising start” to the season, the profitability forecasts for hotels, flats, holiday rentals and rural tourism are optimistic, with a certain degree of uncertainty (+8%). Hotel occupancy is expected to increase by 21 % and prices and costs are expected to rise, both due to inflation and higher labour costs, which will be felt more by small businesses.

Also almost 25 % of the tourist accommodation entrepreneurs in Mallorca are worried and insecure, especially because of rising prices.

The report also states that in order to improve profitability it is necessary to go beyond an intensive high season by extending it beyond July and August.

Concern about the complementary offer

With regard to the complementary offer – catering, tourist trade, transport and leisure and sports services – another major pillar of tourist activity in the Balearic Islands, the outlook for profitability is not so positive (+4%). It is estimated that activity would increase by 14 %, prices by 17 % and costs by 19 %.

Excessive inflation and competition from the all-inclusive sector means that a significant proportion of visitors are limiting their consumption to hotels. This affects a sector made up mainly of SMEs and the self-employed. In the case of complementary offer entrepreneurs, more than 35% are worried about the uncertainty.